Switch to light mode
Switch to dark mode
An analysis of political rhetoric of the 2022 parliament
Upon the announcement of the May 15, 2022 parliamentary elections and right up to the announcement of the final candidate lists, NOW gathered a team of social scientists, journalists, coders and designers, to map out the political rhetoric and public debate in the country and to simplify it visually through colors and weights. A political color and size indicator of sorts.
This is not a science project, rather a logical interpretation to the messier than thou political rhetoric and debate that have rendered many observers and citizens
This is not a science project, rather a logical interpretation to the messier than thou political rhetoric and debate that have rendered many observers and citizens
confused as to what makes sense to them or is closer to their hearts.
We did not go by the book - we did not simply put together a questionnaire for candidates to fill out. Instead, for the view to be genuine, we monitored digital and social media in order to assimilate what politicians and deputies really sound like when they are candid, or not.
We did not go by the book - we did not simply put together a questionnaire for candidates to fill out. Instead, for the view to be genuine, we monitored digital and social media in order to assimilate what politicians and deputies really sound like when they are candid, or not.
The Six Political Tendencies
To illustrate and simplify the variant political thought tendencies and what can these imply in an electoral district, a sect or the nation at large, we applied a commonly used graph known as the Horseshoe. The horseshoe graph combines the various shades of political tendencies into main categories, six in this case. Ranging from Liberal, Conservative Right, Social Left, Ultra Left, Ultra Right, to Fanatic.
This approach, as opposed to the classic linear representation of ideologies from Left to Right may expose some cognitive dissonances, allowing the reader to see more clearly where political ideas meet or diverge, and the reasons why they seem to be in alliance or dispute despite the general perception that they belong to or are opposed to similar ideological poles.
For instance, in Lebanon, as anywhere else, the Ultra Right and Ultra Left have discourses so close to Fanatic that they often become hard to distinguish.
This exercise is meant to tell the reader where a politician, a political party, an activist group, an electoral list or a candidate stood in political thought and hence in relation with the main issues facing the Lebanese society and the politics of today.
This approach, as opposed to the classic linear representation of ideologies from Left to Right may expose some cognitive dissonances, allowing the reader to see more clearly where political ideas meet or diverge, and the reasons why they seem to be in alliance or dispute despite the general perception that they belong to or are opposed to similar ideological poles.
For instance, in Lebanon, as anywhere else, the Ultra Right and Ultra Left have discourses so close to Fanatic that they often become hard to distinguish.
This exercise is meant to tell the reader where a politician, a political party, an activist group, an electoral list or a candidate stood in political thought and hence in relation with the main issues facing the Lebanese society and the politics of today.
The Horseshoe
Social Left
Liberal
Conservative Right
Ultra Right
Fanatic
Ultra Left
The Four Poles of Political Rhetoric
The six political tendencies illustrating the various thought models, when applied to the general political rhetoric in the country, and currently among candidates and their lists, has shown four prominent directions on which the debate had centered
itself since the beginning of the crisis, long before, and up until now.
Suddenly what looked like an unfathomable puzzle and utter mess of political ideas and tendencies became clearer. We were able to identify four rhetorical axes that currently polarize Lebanon:
Suddenly what looked like an unfathomable puzzle and utter mess of political ideas and tendencies became clearer. We were able to identify four rhetorical axes that currently polarize Lebanon:
Actual
Regional vs National
Center
Fanatic
Ally
Ultra Right and Ultra Left
Rival
Conservative Right Social Left
Opposite
Liberal
Actual.
Applied by the current ruling majority, this polarization, however in reverse, is closer to reality. The historically persistent polarization between the Regional (Supranational) versus the National polarity. Where people are divided based on whether Lebanon is merely a part of a greater regional context (system) or should preserve its national identity and sovereignty irrespective of the surrounding factors.
To the ruling order, at the helm and center of this graph lie the Fanatics, in alliance with Ultra Left and Ultra Right, seemingly rivalling Conservative Right and Social Left, while in absolute it simply opposes Liberalism in its broad sense.
To the ruling order, at the helm and center of this graph lie the Fanatics, in alliance with Ultra Left and Ultra Right, seemingly rivalling Conservative Right and Social Left, while in absolute it simply opposes Liberalism in its broad sense.
Basic
Secular vs Sectarian
Center
Liberal and Social Left
Ally
Ultra Left
Rival
Conservative Right and Fanatic
Opposite
Ultra Right
Basic.
An over-simplified polarization that regards the principal issue to be lack of separation between religion and state, it also confuses communal identification with religious zeal and as such tends to want to polarize the Secular versus the Sectarian.
It considers Liberals and Social Left as secularists alongside Ultra Left, while it bundles Conservatives together with Ultra Right and Fanatics as sectarianists, without paying much attention to the various shades between simple, homegrown, and democratic, religious persuasion and imported religious totalitarian fundamentalism.
It considers Liberals and Social Left as secularists alongside Ultra Left, while it bundles Conservatives together with Ultra Right and Fanatics as sectarianists, without paying much attention to the various shades between simple, homegrown, and democratic, religious persuasion and imported religious totalitarian fundamentalism.
Reformist
Left vs Right
Center
Social Left and Ultra Left
Ally
Liberal or Fanatic
Rival
Conservative Right and Ultra Right
Opposite
Conservative Right
Reformist.
The classical Right versus Left polarization where the chief issue becomes socio- economic reform without paying much attention to the existential issues of sovereignty and security that face the republic.
Another over-simplified polarization, that considers the problem as merely a class struggle or a behavioral issue of corruption, not necessarily related to the absence of state law and order. This is where Social and Ultra Left are considered at the helm and center of the political spectrum. It irrationally renders secular or sectarian Liberals and Fanatics as equals, and independently as allies or foes, while considers Conservative and Ultra Right to be the core or only issue.
Another over-simplified polarization, that considers the problem as merely a class struggle or a behavioral issue of corruption, not necessarily related to the absence of state law and order. This is where Social and Ultra Left are considered at the helm and center of the political spectrum. It irrationally renders secular or sectarian Liberals and Fanatics as equals, and independently as allies or foes, while considers Conservative and Ultra Right to be the core or only issue.
Constitutional
Mainstream vs Extreme
Center
Liberal
Ally
Conservative Right and Social Left
Rival
Ultra Right and Ultra Left
Opposite
Fanatic
Constitutional.
Considers all political affinities as equal, so long they represent the mainstream social fabric, as opposed to Ultra (extreme) Right and Left and hence fanatism in all its forms. What renders this polarization most realistic, is the fact that it consists of the “actual” Regional vs National polarization in reverse, but upside down, and that it is the most applicable in most societies around the world.
This is where Liberals interact and debate with both Conservative Right and Social Left to create a bipartisan centrist position capable of mustering a national agenda and cooperation among various political tendencies. Ultra Right and Left as well as Fanatics become the bottom and least effective denominators of the political spectrum.
This is where Liberals interact and debate with both Conservative Right and Social Left to create a bipartisan centrist position capable of mustering a national agenda and cooperation among various political tendencies. Ultra Right and Left as well as Fanatics become the bottom and least effective denominators of the political spectrum.
see moreThe Five Issues
To assimilate the various political thought models, it was essential to understand the structural components of these thoughts. According to our analysis, the most discussed topics accross the Lebanese public sphere have been revolving around five streams.
The Process
These streams were than summarized with five representative questions to the issues facing the republic. To each of the questions, we attached six answers derived from concepts and statements already made by people and circulating onsocial media. Each answer representing the most applicable common denominator in relation to the six political tendencies and their variants.
And we profiled each of the answers to the divisive issues as a persona, the logic behind it and the way it is expressed, its definition and what it carries in undertone, and lastly, how it is manifested rhetorically.
Then we created the puzzle pieces: six positions representing six political affinities addressing the five issues the republic faces, and color coded them. Finally, we examined each politician, political party, activist group, electoral list or candidate stance on these divisive issues, placed them in the matrix and here comes the results.
And we profiled each of the answers to the divisive issues as a persona, the logic behind it and the way it is expressed, its definition and what it carries in undertone, and lastly, how it is manifested rhetorically.
Then we created the puzzle pieces: six positions representing six political affinities addressing the five issues the republic faces, and color coded them. Finally, we examined each politician, political party, activist group, electoral list or candidate stance on these divisive issues, placed them in the matrix and here comes the results.
What defines the nation, it expresses the basis on which a person defines one’s self with that of society - Monochromic or diverse, cultural or religious, racial or linguistic, nation-state or a state within a larger context
Lebanon is a Western invention and can never become a real state. 
Radical
1%
Logic
Ideology Is Nation. Ethnocentric ideology is the unifying identity factor, while plurality is a divisive element that should be oppressed.
Definition
Arab. Citizen of a temporary state that is part of an eventual larger Syrian or Arab nation state.
Expression
Arab. Syrian, Arab Syrian, Arab Lebanese.
Lebanon is a flawed patch-up of sects and cannot become a state unless homogenized.
Supranationalist
21%
Logic
Language Is Nation. Language is ethnicity and the unifying identity factor, while plurality is a divisive element that should be tamed.
Definition
Arab Lebanese. Citizen of a colourful state within an eventual larger Arab union.
Expression
Arab. Arab Lebanese, Lebanese Arab, Universal.
Lebanon had and has the potential to become a state if geopolitical intrusions are eliminated.
Nationalist
10%
Logic
Culture Is Nation. Culture is the unifying identity factor, while plurality is a societal element that can be managed.
Definition
Lebanese. Citizen of a nation state, considers the Arab League as a minimal commonwealth.
Expression
Lebanese. Mediterranean, Middle Eastern, Universal.
Lebanon is a sum of religious communities bound to live together in a fair power sharing societal arrangement.
Traditionalist
8%
Logic
Sect Is Nation. Plurality is the unifying identity factor, while communal balance is the core of state unity.
Definition
Lebanese Arab. Citizen of a distinct state within a larger Arab family of states.
Expression
Arab. Armenian, Hellenic, Phoenician, Syriac.
Lebanon is a mix of conflicting ethnicities that can only coexist by force or survive if separated.
Isolationist
4%
Logic
Race Is Nation. Sectarian identity is an ethnic unifying factor, while plurality is a divisive element that should be dismantled.
Definition
Levantine. Citizen of a partitioned or militant state within an eventual Levant alliance of minorities.
Expression
Levantine. Canaanite, Syriac, Syrian.
Lebanon has a Muslim majority and can only be governed by (Shia, Sunni) Islamic rule.
Theological
4%
Logic
Islam Is Nation. Islamocentric ideology is the unifying identity factor, while plurality is a divisive element that should be destroyed.
Definition
Muslim. Citizen of a temporary state that will dissolve into an eventual Islamic nation state.
Expression
Muslim. Muslim Arab.
The nature and form of the constitution, expresses the way a person sees the substance or the principles and form or laws most suitable for the Lebanese Republic, and whether to effect the long overdue enforcement of the constitution, or to apply amendments first, it or completely give it up in favor of alternatives
Constitution should adopt ideological aspirations at the expense of fake Western democracy.
Autocrat
2%
Logic
Imperiophobic. We are all Arabs divided by the imperial West.
Definition
Absolutist. One party rules with accessory coalition.
Expression
Totalitarian. Ideological unity is more important than that of the state.
Constitution should ensure societal majority rules even at the expense of plurality.
Social
11%
Logic
Ethnocentric. We are all Arabs divided by inbred and colonially infused sectarianism.
Definition
Majoritarian. Numbers dictate irrespective of plurality.
Expression
Apologist. Arab unity is a requisite to that of the state.
Constitution should ensure diverse political majority rules in a congressional democracy.
Liberal
18%
Logic
Secular. We are politically divided by collaborators with hostile neighbors, while sectarianism is used largely as a political tool.
Definition
Congressional. Intracommunal diversity creates political majority.
Definition
Republican. Constitutional respect and application are requisites to state unity.
Constitution should protect plurality even at the expense of some individual equality.
Conservative
7%
Logic
Sectarian. Pluralism and societal unity require certain compromises to secure state union.
Definition
Pluralist. Sectarian majorities rule together prorate.
Expression
Communal. Communal equitability is a requisite to state unity.
Constitution should reflect sectarian ambitions even at the expense of plurality.
Supremacist
4%
Logic
Racist. We are all minorities in a region of Sunni hegemony.
Definition
Selective. Power elite rule.
Expression
Tribalist. Intra-sectarian unity is more important than that of the state.
Constitution should reflect religious doctrine even at the expense of plurality.
Theocrat
3%
Logic
Chauvinist. We are all Muslims divided by the Christian West.
Definition
Cleric. Religious elite rule.
Expression
Zealot. Religious unity is more important than that of the state.
The type of governing system the country needs, it quantifies a person’s view on the kind of government and administration under which the state should operate – big or small, centralized or decentralized, bilateral or trilateral, federal or divided, localized or controlled
Maximal state centralization with basic administrative localization.
Centralist
10%
Logic
Arabist. Ours are fake borders drawn by the West, while sects, other than Islamic, should not constitute political entities.
Definition
Simulative. Orchestrated democracy.
Expression
Orientalist. Considers statehood non-existent or immaterial, while reform is subject to ideology.
Minimal administrative and electoral decentralization with secular administration.
Reformed
8%
Logic
Sykes-Picotian. Ours are inconclusive borders drawn by the West, while sects, including Islamic, are not political entities.
Definition
Consensual. Participatory democracy.
Expression
Reformist. Believes reform is merely social and administrative irrespective of lack of statehood.
Congressional socio-geographic decentralization with secular administration.
Constitutionalist
15%
Logic
Universalist. Ours are pertinent historic borders, while sects are societal entities as is the case anywhere.
Definition
Congressional. Parliamentary democracy.
Expression
Nationalist. Believes a nation state is key to statehood, hence to sovereignty, reform and progress.
Constitutional secto-geographic federation with maximum decentralization.
Federal
3%
Logic
Ottomanist. Ours are internationally recognized borders, while sects are historically political entities within (Millet).
Definition
Deliberative. Parliamentary democracy.
Expression
Sovereign. Believes statehood (sovereignty) is key to reform and progress.
Sectarian confederation or partition with minimal to zero centralization.
Trilateral
4%
Logic
Minoritarian. Ours are inconclusive borders engulfed by Muslims, where sects are required to be political entities.
Definition
Competitive. Oligarchic democracy.
Expression
Separatist. Considers statehood non-existent or immaterial, while reform is subject to ideology.
Militant ideological centralization with basic administrative localization.
Militant
3%
Logic
Islamist. Ours are fake borders drawn by the Christian West, and Islam is the only legitimate political entity.
Definition
Islamic. Synthetic democracy.
Expression
Expansionist. Control your own community to force control on others.
The basis upon which foreign and national security policies are devised. It illustrates a person’s view on the direction Lebanon’s domestic stability and foreign affairs should take in relation to the main issues defining it, especially with regard to Israel and the West and to Iran, Syria and the East – Neutrality and UN Security Council Resolutions, democratic or Axis alignment
Lebanon’s natural position is among resistant Arab and Axis states.
Dogmatic
15%
Logic
Pax Sinica. Lebanon is part of the Arab Syrian nation and should be freed along with Palestine from Western imperialism.
Definition
Objectionist. Aligned to all things East. Israel and the West are the enemies.
Expression
Resistance. Popular (read partisan) resistance against Israel is as legitimate as the state itself.
Lebanon should be a buffer zone between East and West except on issues related to Arab-Israeli conflict.
Inclusive
11%
Logic
Pax Arabica. ”Peace for Land” Beirut Arab League conference resolution.
Definition
Non-Aligned. Selective partial neutrality achieved by consensus. Israel is the enemy.
Expression
UNIFIL. A new, anti-Israel only, defense strategy and non-aligned armoury to restrict security affairs to legitimate state forces.
Lebanon’s natural position is within the West and like-minded Arabs including on Israel related issues.
Practical
10%
Logic
Pax Americana. Better with cynical West than with brute East.
Definition
Neutral. Impartial neutrality is the true middle ground. Israel is not a de facto enemy.
Expression
UNCSR. Revive Armistice Agreement of 1949, demarcate borders and implement UN Resolutions.
Lebanon should be a buffer zone between East and West including on Israel related issues.
Moderative
3%
Logic
Pax Abrahamica. Arab-Israeli conflict is dead, only Iranian-Israeli conjuncture is at play.
Definition
Semi Neutral. Partial neutrality is the most possible. Israel is an enemy.
Expression
UNCSR. Revive Armistice Agreement of 1949, demarcate borders and implement UN Resolutions.
Lebanon can survive Sunni hegemony through a pact between minorities and the Axis.
Dialectic
5%
Logic
Pax Russica. The West, and Israel, care only about Sunnis, while the Axis protects minorities.
Definition
Levantine. Aligned to all things autocrat.
Expression
JCPOA. Iran is wining and the West will have to deal with its hegemony over its surrounding to counter-balance Sunnis.
Lebanon’s natural position is among resistant Islamic and Axis states.
Islamic
4%
Logic
Pax Iranica. Lebanon is part of the Islamic nation and should be freed along with Palestine from Western crusades.
Definition
Umma. Aligned to all things Islamic (Shia, Sunni). Jews and Crusaders are the enemies.
Expression
IRGC. Islamic resistance against the West is a divine mission above any state.
The type of economy that goes best with the country, it assesses a person’s view on what Lebanon’s economy should look like, according to the way they see monetary and economic stability, wealth distribution and market growth – Regulatory or active, controlled or free, capitalist or socialist
Centralized economy that distributes resources and wealth according to state needs.
Socialist
12%
Logic
Maximalist. Control media and politics to control economy.
Definition
Command. Economy where most or all is controlled by the state.
Expression
Sanctions. Are the main reason behind our economic disaster.
Fat active state that insures resources and wealth are fairly distributed among social classes.
Left
13%
Logic
Progressive. Too little government hinders societal equality.
Definition
Social. Economy where societal objectives supersede capital needs.
Expression
Corruption. Political class and banks are the main reason behind our economic disaster.
Thin regulatory state that does not burden the economy and can modernize the administration.
Centrist
9%
Logic
Minimalist. Too much government, especially client one, hinders free market and job growth.
Definition
Market. Economy based on supply and demand.
Expression
Go West. No equitable market economy without true statehood and democracy.
Medium active state that insures resources and wealth are fairly distributed among communities.
Right
2%
Logic
Cooperative. Equitability requires state input and management.
Definition
Mixed. Economy that combines aspects of capitalism and socialism.
Expression
Partiality. Axis hegemony and partiality against Arab and Western friends are the reasons behind our economic disaster.
Separate economies that control the distribution of resources and wealth within sects.
Tribalist
4%
Logic
Patronage. Trusted followers and allies unsure sectarian power.
Definition
Oligarch. Economy where a lucky few control most of the economy.
Expression
Conspiracy. Western Sunni favouritism and conspiracy are behind our economic disaster.
Parallel economy that is permeable to Western control and public scrutiny.
Defiant
3%
Logic
Abduction. Control security to control economy.
Definition
Jihadist. Economy where anything goes in the service of ideology.
Expression
Go East. Escape Western imperialism to Eastern autocracy.
The Parliament
The following will allow the reader to examine results by deputy, district, party or bloc, political orientation, sect or the country as a whole.
