An analysis of political rhetoric of the 2022 parliament

Upon the announcement of the May 15, 2022 parliamentary elections and right up to the announcement of the final candidate lists, NOW gathered a team of social scientists, journalists, coders and designers, to map out the political rhetoric and public debate in the country and to simplify it visually through colors and weights. A political color and size indicator of sorts.

This is not a science project, rather a logical interpretation to the messier than thou political rhetoric and debate that have rendered many observers and citizens
confused as to what makes sense to them or is closer to their hearts.

We did not go by the book - we did not simply put together a questionnaire for candidates to fill out. Instead, for the view to be genuine, we monitored digital and social media in order to assimilate what politicians and deputies really sound like when they are candid, or not.

The Six Political Tendencies

To illustrate and simplify the variant political thought tendencies and what can these imply in an electoral district, a sect or the nation at large, we applied a commonly used graph known as the Horseshoe. The horseshoe graph combines the various shades of political tendencies into main categories, six in this case. Ranging from Liberal, Conservative Right, Social Left, Ultra Left, Ultra Right, to Fanatic.

This approach, as opposed to the classic linear representation of ideologies from Left to Right may expose some cognitive dissonances, allowing the reader to see more clearly where political ideas meet or diverge, and the reasons why they seem to be in alliance or dispute despite the general perception that they belong to or are opposed to similar ideological poles.

For instance, in Lebanon, as anywhere else, the Ultra Right and Ultra Left have discourses so close to Fanatic that they often become hard to distinguish.

This exercise is meant to tell the reader where a politician, a political party, an activist group, an electoral list or a candidate stood in political thought and hence in relation with the main issues facing the Lebanese society and the politics of today.

The Horseshoe

Social Left

Liberal

Conservative Right

Ultra Right

Fanatic

Ultra Left

The Four Poles of Political Rhetoric

The six political tendencies illustrating the various thought models, when applied to the general political rhetoric in the country, and currently among candidates and their lists, has shown four prominent directions on which the debate had centered
itself since the beginning of the crisis, long before, and up until now.

Suddenly what looked like an unfathomable puzzle and utter mess of political ideas and tendencies became clearer. We were able to identify four rhetorical axes that currently polarize Lebanon:

The Five Issues

To assimilate the various political thought models, it was essential to understand the structural components of these thoughts. According to our analysis, the most discussed topics accross the Lebanese public sphere have been revolving around five streams.

The Process

These streams were than summarized with five representative questions to the issues facing the republic. To each of the questions, we attached six answers derived from concepts and statements already made by people and circulating on
social media. Each answer representing the most applicable common denominator in relation to the six political tendencies and their variants.

And we profiled each of the answers to the divisive issues as a persona, the logic behind it and the way it is expressed, its definition and what it carries in undertone, and lastly, how it is manifested rhetorically.

Then we created the puzzle pieces: six positions representing six political affinities addressing the five issues the republic faces, and color coded them. Finally, we examined each politician, political party, activist group, electoral list or candidate stance on these divisive issues, placed them in the matrix and here comes the results.
What defines the nation, it expresses the basis on which a person defines one’s self with that of society - Monochromic or diverse, cultural or religious, racial or linguistic, nation-state or a state within a larger context
The nature and form of the constitution, expresses the way a person sees the substance or the principles and form or laws most suitable for the Lebanese Republic, and whether to effect the long overdue enforcement of the constitution, or to apply amendments first, it or completely give it up in favor of alternatives
The type of governing system the country needs, it quantifies a person’s view on the kind of government and administration under which the state should operate – big or small, centralized or decentralized, bilateral or trilateral, federal or divided, localized or controlled
The basis upon which foreign and national security policies are devised. It illustrates a person’s view on the direction Lebanon’s domestic stability and foreign affairs should take in relation to the main issues defining it, especially with regard to Israel and the West and to Iran, Syria and the East – Neutrality and UN Security Council Resolutions, democratic or Axis alignment
The type of economy that goes best with the country, it assesses a person’s view on what Lebanon’s economy should look like, according to the way they see monetary and economic stability, wealth distribution and market growth – Regulatory or active, controlled or free, capitalist or socialist

The Parliament

The following will allow the reader to examine results by deputy, district, party or bloc, political orientation, sect or the country as a whole.

Social
Left
Social Left

Liberal Liberal

Conservative
Right
Conservative Right

Ultra
Right
Ultra Right

Fanatic Fanatic

Ultra
Left
Ultra Left

Unclear Unclear

Beirut

1
2

Bekaa

1
2
3

Mount Lebanon

1
2
3
4

North

1
2
3

South

1
2
3